Rugby World Cup Predictions

2023 RWC success rate: 41/48 (85.4%). Average error 13.2 points.

The score margin equals [Team 1 score] minus [Team 2 score].

RWC Final Prediction
Team 1Win % 1Win % 2Team 2Predicted marginActual margin
New Zealand63.8%36.2%South Africa5-1
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RWC 3rd Place Prediction
Team 1Win % 1Win % 2Team 2Predicted marginActual margin
Argentina40.4%59.6%England-3-3
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RWC Semifinal Predictions
Team 1Win % 1Win % 2Team 2Predicted marginActual margin
Argentina9.5%90.5%New Zealand-19-38
England15.5%84.5%South Africa-14-1
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RWC Quarterfinal Predictions
Team 1Win % 1Win % 2Team 2Predicted marginActual margin
Wales47.4%52.6%Argentina-1-12
Ireland35.9%64.1%New Zealand-5-4
England78.3%21.7%Fiji116
France48.6%51.4%South Africa-1-1
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RWC Round 5 Predictions
Team 1Win % 1Win % 2Team 2Predicted marginActual margin
New Zealand99.8%0.2%Uruguay5373
France97.0%3.0%Italy2953
Wales86.2%13.8%Georgia1524
England91.0%9.0%Samoa191
Ireland75.0%25.0%Scotland922
Japan14.2%85.8%Argentina-15-12
Tonga87.5%12.5%Romania1621
Fiji91.2%8.8%Portugal19-1
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RWC Round 4 Predictions
Team 1Win % 1Win % 2Team 2Predicted marginActual margin
Uruguay81.7%18.3%Namibia1210
Japan50.6%49.4%Samoa16
New Zealand96.7%3.3%Italy2879
Argentina99.0%1.0%Chile3854
Fiji77.0%23.0%Georgia105
Scotland99.4%0.6%Romania4284
Australia95.4%4.6%Portugal2520
South Africa99.4%0.6%Tonga4231
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RWC Round 3 Predictions
Team 1Win % 1Win % 2Team 2Predicted marginActual margin
Italy94.0%6.0%Uruguay2321
France99.9%0.1%Namibia5896
Argentina86.5%13.5%Samoa159
Georgia79.5%20.5%Portugal110
England99.1%0.9%Chile3971
South Africa61.9%38.1%Ireland4-5
Scotland96.7%3.3%Tonga2828
Wales38.8%61.2%Australia-434
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RWC Round 2 Predictions
Team 1Win % 1Win % 2Team 2Predicted marginActual margin
France99.8%0.2%Uruguay5115
New Zealand99.9%0.1%Namibia6168
Samoa92.1%7.9%Chile2033
Wales95.0%5.0%Portugal2420
Ireland99.0%1.0%Tonga3843
South Africa99.9%0.1%Romania5476
Australia75.1%24.9%Fiji9-7
England88.1%11.9%Japan1722
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RWC Round 1 Predictions
Team 1Win % 1Win % 2Team 2Predicted marginActual margin
France40.7%59.3%New Zealand-314
Italy97.9%2.1%Namibia3244
Ireland99.7%0.3%Romania4974
Australia88.9%11.1%Georgia1720
England50.2%49.8%Argentina117
Japan92.6%7.4%Chile2130
South Africa83.3%16.7%Scotland1315
Wales63.0%37.0%Fiji46
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Archive (xlsx file): 2015 & 2019