Autumn International Predictions
2018 success rate: 26/31 (83.9%). Average error 11.2 points.
The score margin equals [Team 1 score] minus [Team 2 score].
| Team 1 | Win % 1 | Win % 2 | Team 2 | Predicted margin | Actual margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romania | 90.2% | 9.8% | Uruguay | 18 | -7 |
| Georgia | 59.2% | 40.8% | Tonga | 3 | 11 |
| Italy | 1.7% | 98.3% | New Zealand | -34 | -63 |
| Japan | 94.2% | 5.8% | Russia | 23 | 5 |
| Scotland | 76.6% | 23.4% | Argentina | 10 | 5 |
| England | 76.5% | 23.5% | Australia | 10 | 19 |
| Wales | 60.8% | 39.2% | South Africa | 4 | 9 |
| Ireland | 98.7% | 1.3% | USA | 36 | 43 |
| France | 88.2% | 11.8% | Fiji | 17 | -7 |
| Team 1 | Win % 1 | Win % 2 | Team 2 | Predicted margin | Actual margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romania | 42.0% | 58.0% | USA | -3 | -26 |
| Uruguay | 3.2% | 96.8% | Fiji | -28 | -61 |
| Italy | 10.4% | 89.6% | Australia | -18 | -19 |
| Georgia | 54.2% | 45.8% | Samoa | 1 | 8 |
| Wales | 96.8% | 3.2% | Tonga | 28 | 50 |
| England | 97.6% | 2.4% | Japan | 31 | 20 |
| Scotland | 51.8% | 48.2% | South Africa | 1 | -6 |
| Ireland | 35.3% | 64.7% | New Zealand | -5 | 7 |
| France | 71.3% | 28.7% | Argentina | 8 | 15 |
| Team 1 | Win % 1 | Win % 2 | Team 2 | Predicted margin | Actual margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 74.3% | 25.7% | Georgia | 9 | 11 |
| Scotland | 90.0% | 10.0% | Fiji | 18 | 37 |
| England | 30.4% | 69.6% | New Zealand | -7 | -1 |
| Wales | 65.9% | 34.1% | Australia | 5 | 3 |
| USA | 42.4% | 57.6% | Samoa | -3 | 1 |
| Ireland | 91.3% | 8.7% | Argentina | 19 | 11 |
| France | 45.4% | 54.6% | South Africa | -2 | -3 |
| Russia | 82.8% | 17.2% | Namibia | 13 | 27 |
| Team 1 | Win % 1 | Win % 2 | Team 2 | Predicted margin | Actual margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | 2.3% | 97.7% | New Zealand | -31 | -38 |
| Wales | 74.1% | 25.9% | Scotland | 9 | 11 |
| England | 74.6% | 25.4% | South Africa | 9 | 1 |
| Ireland | 98.3% | 1.7% | Italy | 34 | 47 |
| Team 1 | Win % 1 | Win % 2 | Team 2 | Predicted margin | Actual margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 88.2% | 11.8% | Australia | 17 | 17 |