Rugby World Cup Predictions
2023 RWC success rate: 41/48 (85.4%). Average error 13.2 points.
The score margin equals [Team 1 score] minus [Team 2 score].
Team 1 | Win % 1 | Win % 2 | Team 2 | Predicted margin | Actual margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Zealand | 63.8% | 36.2% | South Africa | 5 | -1 |
Team 1 | Win % 1 | Win % 2 | Team 2 | Predicted margin | Actual margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Argentina | 40.4% | 59.6% | England | -3 | -3 |
Team 1 | Win % 1 | Win % 2 | Team 2 | Predicted margin | Actual margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Argentina | 9.5% | 90.5% | New Zealand | -19 | -38 |
England | 15.5% | 84.5% | South Africa | -14 | -1 |
Team 1 | Win % 1 | Win % 2 | Team 2 | Predicted margin | Actual margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wales | 47.4% | 52.6% | Argentina | -1 | -12 |
Ireland | 35.9% | 64.1% | New Zealand | -5 | -4 |
England | 78.3% | 21.7% | Fiji | 11 | 6 |
France | 48.6% | 51.4% | South Africa | -1 | -1 |
Team 1 | Win % 1 | Win % 2 | Team 2 | Predicted margin | Actual margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Zealand | 99.8% | 0.2% | Uruguay | 53 | 73 |
France | 97.0% | 3.0% | Italy | 29 | 53 |
Wales | 86.2% | 13.8% | Georgia | 15 | 24 |
England | 91.0% | 9.0% | Samoa | 19 | 1 |
Ireland | 75.0% | 25.0% | Scotland | 9 | 22 |
Japan | 14.2% | 85.8% | Argentina | -15 | -12 |
Tonga | 87.5% | 12.5% | Romania | 16 | 21 |
Fiji | 91.2% | 8.8% | Portugal | 19 | -1 |
Team 1 | Win % 1 | Win % 2 | Team 2 | Predicted margin | Actual margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Uruguay | 81.7% | 18.3% | Namibia | 12 | 10 |
Japan | 50.6% | 49.4% | Samoa | 1 | 6 |
New Zealand | 96.7% | 3.3% | Italy | 28 | 79 |
Argentina | 99.0% | 1.0% | Chile | 38 | 54 |
Fiji | 77.0% | 23.0% | Georgia | 10 | 5 |
Scotland | 99.4% | 0.6% | Romania | 42 | 84 |
Australia | 95.4% | 4.6% | Portugal | 25 | 20 |
South Africa | 99.4% | 0.6% | Tonga | 42 | 31 |
Team 1 | Win % 1 | Win % 2 | Team 2 | Predicted margin | Actual margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Italy | 94.0% | 6.0% | Uruguay | 23 | 21 |
France | 99.9% | 0.1% | Namibia | 58 | 96 |
Argentina | 86.5% | 13.5% | Samoa | 15 | 9 |
Georgia | 79.5% | 20.5% | Portugal | 11 | 0 |
England | 99.1% | 0.9% | Chile | 39 | 71 |
South Africa | 61.9% | 38.1% | Ireland | 4 | -5 |
Scotland | 96.7% | 3.3% | Tonga | 28 | 28 |
Wales | 38.8% | 61.2% | Australia | -4 | 34 |
Team 1 | Win % 1 | Win % 2 | Team 2 | Predicted margin | Actual margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
France | 99.8% | 0.2% | Uruguay | 51 | 15 |
New Zealand | 99.9% | 0.1% | Namibia | 61 | 68 |
Samoa | 92.1% | 7.9% | Chile | 20 | 33 |
Wales | 95.0% | 5.0% | Portugal | 24 | 20 |
Ireland | 99.0% | 1.0% | Tonga | 38 | 43 |
South Africa | 99.9% | 0.1% | Romania | 54 | 76 |
Australia | 75.1% | 24.9% | Fiji | 9 | -7 |
England | 88.1% | 11.9% | Japan | 17 | 22 |
Team 1 | Win % 1 | Win % 2 | Team 2 | Predicted margin | Actual margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
France | 40.7% | 59.3% | New Zealand | -3 | 14 |
Italy | 97.9% | 2.1% | Namibia | 32 | 44 |
Ireland | 99.7% | 0.3% | Romania | 49 | 74 |
Australia | 88.9% | 11.1% | Georgia | 17 | 20 |
England | 50.2% | 49.8% | Argentina | 1 | 17 |
Japan | 92.6% | 7.4% | Chile | 21 | 30 |
South Africa | 83.3% | 16.7% | Scotland | 13 | 15 |
Wales | 63.0% | 37.0% | Fiji | 4 | 6 |
Archive (xlsx file): 2015 & 2019