Rugby World Cup Predictions

2019 success rate: 40/45 (88.9%). Average error 11.24 points.

The score margin equals [Team 1 score] minus [Team 2 score].

RWC Final Prediction
Team 1Win % 1Win % 2Team 2Predicted marginActual margin
England60.3%39.7%South Africa3-20
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RWC 3rd Place Prediction
Team 1Win % 1Win % 2Team 2Predicted marginActual margin
New Zealand86.3%13.7%Wales1523
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RWC Semifinal Predictions
Team 1Win % 1Win % 2Team 2Predicted marginActual margin
England28.0%72.0%New Zealand-812
Wales30.6%69.4%South Africa-7-3
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RWC Quarterfinal Predictions
Team 1Win % 1Win % 2Team 2Predicted marginActual margin
England76.4%23.6%Australia1024
New Zealand83.6%16.4%Ireland1332
Wales67.3%32.7%France61
Japan10.3%89.7%South Africa-18-23
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RWC Round 4 Predictions
Team 1Win % 1Win % 2Team 2Predicted marginActual margin
South Africa99.7%0.3%Canada4959
Argentina90.9%9.1%USA1930
Scotland99.0%1.0%Russia3861
Wales90.2%9.8%Fiji1812
Australia96.0%4.0%Georgia2619
New Zealand98.9%1.1%Italy37Cancelled
England84.1%15.9%France14Cancelled
Ireland95.8%4.2%Samoa2642
Namibia27.5%72.5%Canada-8Cancelled
USA47.3%52.7%Tonga-1-12
Wales99.5%0.5%Uruguay4422
Japan27.0%73.0%Scotland-87
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Note: Predictions for NAMvCAN, USAvTON, WALvURU and JPNvSCO updated on Oct. 10.
RWC Round 3 Predictions
Team 1Win % 1Win % 2Team 2Predicted marginActual margin
France93.8%6.2%USA2224
New Zealand99.9%0.1%Canada5863
Georgia27.2%72.8%Fiji-8-35
Ireland99.6%0.4%Russia4635
South Africa95.6%4.4%Italy2546
Australia99.4%0.6%Uruguay4235
England85.7%14.3%Argentina1529
Japan78.3%21.7%Samoa1119
New Zealand>99.9%<0.1%Namibia6862
France94.4%5.6%Tonga232
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Note: Predictions updated on Oct. 1 & Oct. 3.
RWC Round 2 Predictions
Team 1Win % 1Win % 2Team 2Predicted marginActual margin
Russia7.8%92.2%Samoa-20-25
Fiji96.6%3.4%Uruguay28-3
Italy92.1%7.9%Canada2041
England98.4%1.6%USA3438
Argentina92.7%7.3%Tonga2116
Japan10.3%89.7%Ireland-187
South Africa99.9%0.1%Namibia5754
Georgia86.8%13.2%Uruguay1626
Australia42.9%57.1%Wales-2-4
Scotland88.4%11.6%Samoa1734
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RWC Round 1 Predictions
Team 1Win % 1Win % 2Team 2Predicted marginActual margin
Japan97.4%2.6%Russia3020
Australia86.4%13.6%Fiji1518
France57.9%42.1%Argentina32
New Zealand78.3%21.7%South Africa1110
Italy97.7%2.3%Namibia3125
Ireland71.7%28.3%Scotland824
England98.7%1.3%Tonga3632
Wales96.8%3.2%Georgia2829
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Archive (xlsx file): 2015 & 2019